Support for President Trump and his party is starting to wane among Latino voters.
According to Equis Research, a Latino polling organization, about a third of Latinos who supported Trump last year "are not set on voting for a Republican" during next year's midterms.
Caitlin Jury, a research director at Equis Research, told NPR that economic issues such as persistently high prices on groceries are driving many Latino voters, who were key in getting Trump elected in November, away from the party.
"Republicans have failed to deliver on a lot of their campaign promises, particularly around lowering the cost of living," she said. "And if they want to retain any gains they may have made among Latino voters, they need to be sure to deliver on the promises they made that maybe gave them some additional support in the last election."
Daniel Garza, president of the Libre Initiative — a group that mobilized Latino voters on economic issues to support conservative candidates, said many Latinos are not satisfied with the current economy.
"Still too many of us are living paycheck to paycheck," he said. "Folks aren't getting good paying jobs, wage growth, checks on inflation, affordable health care and housing and quality education."
But, Garza said, it's only been six months and he is optimistic that most Latinos who voted for Republican candidates will be patient.
"[Latinos] understand that there's a lag, you know, from the previous administration that continues to impact them in a way that is negative," he said. "And I think there is a patience with this administration for their reforms … and the changes that they put into place to take effect."
Melissa Morales, the founder and president of Somos Votantes and Somos PAC, a left-leaning Latino voter mobilization organization, said her group's polling has found that pessimism about the economy among Latino voters since Trump took office is only growing at this point.
"The longer Trump is in office, the more frustrated Latino voters are becoming with his economic policies," Morales said. "And it's becoming a pretty huge liability for him."
It's also a huge liability for the Republican Party, in general. Control of Congress is at stake during next year's midterm elections. The GOP currently has a very narrow majority in the House and the Senate is potentially up for grabs, too. Many of these competitive races across the country are in areas with significant Latino populations.
Morales warns Latino voters have less allegiance to particular parties — compared to other voters.
"We have internally called Latino voters the last true swing voters," Morales said. "So we do expect to see some movement one way or the other."
As of now, Latinos have a lot of dissatisfaction with how Republican lawmakers are handling their most important issue. According to Somos Votantes' polling, "a large majority of Hispanic/Latino voters continue to rate the U.S. economy today as poor (64%), including nearly a third who say it is very poor (32%)."
A majority of voters (56%) also reported feeling that the economy was only getting worse under Trump.
There is also evidence that Trump's tariff strategy has only increased prices for consumers as they go into effect, which Garza admits could be an issue for conservatives.
"There is a concern that there is a lag on inflation when it comes to the spike in tariffs. Because in the end, the consumer's going to pay for the tariffs," he said. "We're going to be watching that."
What this means for Democrats
This growing discontent with Republicans hasn't directly translated into support for Democrats, though.
"What we're seeing here is certainly a rising cynicism towards both parties," Equis Research's Caitlin Jury said, "especially among some key swing voters."
Jury said her group found an increase in people reporting that they were unsure what party they will support in next year's midterm elections — including among "Biden defectors," defined as voters who cast a ballot for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 — as well as Trump voters writ large.
"So, these are folks who were telling us they were set on voting for a Republican when we talked to them earlier this year in May," she said. "And now they've moved away from the Republican camp and into this neither/undecided bucket. So, [there is] movement away from Republicans, but not quite yet towards Democrats."
Jury said if Democrats want to win over some of these voters by next year, they "need to offer Latinos a proactive vision" for dealing with many of their concerns.
"Latinos really want to see lower costs of groceries," she said. "They want to see lower health care costs. They want to see lower taxes for working people. They're really prioritizing trying to find some relief in their everyday economic situation."
However, Garza said he thinks Democrats have a deeper branding problem with Latino voters. He said a lot of Latinos don't like the direction of the party in the past few years,
"The optics, the narratives, the actual policies that are being passed, all favor Republicans at this point," he argued.
Morales said the disillusionment and dissatisfaction among Latino voters, including among many people who voted Trump, does actually give a significant opportunity for Democrats to change course and provide a "sweeping economic vision." It could provide an alternative to Trump's less popular economic policies like tariffs and tax cuts favoring billionaires.
"If they can deliver on that, if they can do that, I think we will see shifts back to support in Democrats," she said. "If they can't, then it will have been a huge missed opportunity."
Copyright 2025 NPR
