SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
President Trump today addressed a post that he made online this weekend that said, quote, "Chicago is about to find out why it's called the Department of War."
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We're not going to war. We're going to clean up our cities. We're going to clean them up, so they don't kill five people every weekend. That's not war. That's common sense.
DETROW: Trump criticized the reporter for asking about it, but the post had shown Trump made up like an "Apocalypse Now" character. And Illinois Governor JB Pritzker had responded, quote, "the president of the United States is threatening to go to war with an American city. This is not a joke. This is not normal." It's fair to say the city is on edge. Robert A. Pape recently warned in a New York Times article that, quote, "Chicago could be a powder keg." The political science professor from the University of Chicago is on the line. Welcome.
ROBERT A PAPE: Thanks for having me, Scott.
DETROW: You know, you've studied political violence for 30 years, and you've particularly focused on what happens when democracies use military force to occupy their own territory. First off, I guess, how does it feel to be thinking about a version of that in your own city?
PAPE: It is - it's really a surprise. I never would have thought in my 30-year career that we would be talking about the use of heavy military forces in an American city, let alone the city I've been living in for over 25 years, when there's not an emergency.
DETROW: Are there typical patterns that you see play out when a leader threatens to occupy a territory within his or her own country and uses the military to do that?
PAPE: Yes, there are - so I have been studying not just political violence for 30 years, Scott, but my specialty is studying military occupations and by democracies, looking at cases that existed or were ongoing from 1980 to the present. And so a good example of this, for example, would be British troops in Northern Ireland. So once you have political leaders start to talk about this, especially the president or the leader here, you can usually expect some real action. So the idea this is all just a hoax or that President Trump is trolling us and so forth, we can all hope that's the case. But since LA, where President Trump sent the Guard - federalized Guard and Marines into an American city, unfortunately, this has already set off a chain of events. And so...
DETROW: Well...
PAPE: ...Go ahead, Scott.
DETROW: I just want to ask a counterpoint. I'm talking to you from Washington, D.C., where there's been a National Guard deployment for several weeks now. You have certainly seen tension points with federal law enforcement agencies either arresting people on the street or carrying out deportation actions. But the National Guard aspect of this, I mean, by and large, there hasn't really been any tension points. You've seen a lot of guardsmen carrying around. There's been pictures of them picking up trash on the National Mall. It doesn't really seem to have escalated, and I'm wondering if that surprises you.
PAPE: That's the normal honeymoon period of how these go. In fact, the British, when they sent troops into Northern Ireland in August 1969, they went on, you know, on a de-escalation mission. And for the initial period, you know, initial weeks and even several months, it looked like that was actually panning out. But, in fact, what happens over time is the heavy military deployments end up impinging on political liberties, civil liberties.
In the case of Chicago, for example, we will - in March, we have our primary elections. Well, that means that the election season for those primaries has already effectively begun and will be ramping up even more. So as time goes on, there is a shift of balance between the original purpose of what the troops were going in to do with the problem that you can't just yank them out or else that - the original - the gains kind of disappear.
DETROW: When you look at the patterns you've studied over the years, what are the moments that you'll be looking out for? You know, I'm thinking about somebody attacks an occupying soldier in one way or another, and that leads to a much more intense crackdown - right? - an escalation of force. Northern Ireland is an example of that, right? Like, what are the other things that you look for that you see play out?
PAPE: There are several things to look for is - No. 1, the rise of peaceful protests, and you would expect them to be initially peaceful. And Governor Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson have definitely stressed that. But the problem I'm going to be looking for in the weeks to follow after that is, are there any incidents start to escalate? What I'm really concerned about, one of the key flashpoints, would be an incident where a member of the Guard or U.S. military were to kill a protester under any circumstances whatsoever, and that would be caught on tape. That could be incredibly inflammatory. And we need to hearken back to Kent State. So what happened in Kent State is that there was a deployment of National Guard on a college campus, and in just 13 seconds, four people were killed. And that created an enormous uproar. Well, this could be even worse.
DETROW: What, if anything, can you tell us about the way that these end? Are there trend lines? Is it overreach that leads to political backlash? Is there anything that you could look for to kind of get out of these scenarios?
PAPE: Well, the biggest thing that we see is that things tend to get a lot worse before they come to an end. What you saw in the case of, say, Northern Ireland, is that things didn't come to an end for decades. So this went on for quite a period of time. That is, the initial British troops went into Northern Ireland. After four months - it didn't happen right away - the Provisional IRA was formed. And the purpose of the Provisional IRA was to use military force against the British troops to get them out. Well, that then created its own cycle of violence that went on for a long period of time. I think that the most important thing is to keep the presence of the troops as small as possible, as limited as possible and as short a duration as possible because as the weeks and months go on, and as this inevitably starts to impinge on political liberties, this will tend to escalate. And the exact trajectory of where this is heading after, say, four to six months is just not clear.
DETROW: That's Robert A. Pape, professor of political science at the University of Chicago, where he directs the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. Thanks so much for joining us.
PAPE: Yeah, thank you, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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