MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
So now let's consider how Iran's leaders might be thinking about this third week of the war. Let's go to Karim Sadjadpour for this. He focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East as a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Karim Sadjadpour, welcome back. Thanks for joining us once again.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Thank you for having me, Michel.
MARTIN: I think as most people know, Iran's former supreme leader was killed on the first day of the war. The new supreme leader is his son Mojtaba Khamenei. He's not been seen in public. So is Mojtaba in charge of Iran right now?
SADJADPOUR: You know, Michel, we can only speculate as to who is, in fact, the most powerful person right now in Iran. On paper, that is Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Khamenei. But what we also know is that he was injured in the attack that killed both his father, his wife, his mother. He's probably living in hiding, living underground because there is - Israelis are actively trying to kill him. And he's someone who is inexperienced. He's never held formally any senior position. So I think in practice, it is the military, the Revolutionary Guards, who are in charge right now in Iran.
MARTIN: And do we have any sense of what the current power structure is of that?
SADJADPOUR: Well, the way the Revolutionary Guards are now fighting this war is in a very decentralized fashion. So instead of having one general based in Tehran who is leading the war in a cohesive fashion, they have what they call a mosaic defense. They have 31 units around the country who are seemingly acting independently. Now, I do think that if a decision was made to end the war, those 31 factions would probably cease fire. But at the moment, they're acting like 31 legs of an octopus.
MARTIN: I think that that sort of invites the question, then, of who one would be negotiating with if there was a willingness to negotiate. And Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was on CBS' "Face The Nation" on Sunday. Let me just play a short clip of what he said.
(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "FACE THE NATION")
ABBAS ARAGHCHI: We are, you know, stable and strong enough. We are only defending our people from the - you know, the - this act of aggression. And we don't see any reason why we should talk with Americans.
MARTIN: How do you hear that?
SADJADPOUR: Well, the foreign minister of Iran is not a powerful position. I see them more of, like, a messenger pigeon. So if there indeed are negotiations at some point, he would need to liaise with the senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, potentially Mojtaba Khamenei. But I don't see that the regime right now feels that it needs to compromise. It feels that its strategy has been working.
MARTIN: Well, in part, I would imagine, because oil is more expensive since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world's oil passes through there. You remember on Sunday, President Trump said hopefully, China, France, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. will send military ships there. He's also demanded that some unnamed countries help. Do you think that this suggests to Iran's leaders that their strategy is, in fact, working?
SADJADPOUR: Well, there's two key points, I think, that Iran's leaders are paying close attention to. Obviously, one is the price of oil. The second is public opinion in the United States. And they see that this war is not popular with the American public, and they're hoping, at some point, the public opinion is going to force President Trump to back down. I think what President Trump is trying to do right now is internationalize the solution, meaning that - the Strait of Hormuz, as you mentioned. Much of the oil that goes out of the Strait of Hormuz, and the natural gas and the fertilizer, is not bound for the West. It's actually bound for Asia. So he's essentially making a plea to Chinese and Indians and others, saying, listen, this is your energy security, and you need to come help resolve the problem.
MARTIN: And I - I'm asking, though, again, from the Iranian perspective, what does this suggest? I mean, do you have any sense of whether they feel that their pressure points are as effective as they hope they are?
SADJADPOUR: At the moment, again, I think they feel this is going in their favor. That could change next week. But ultimately, what I've noted, Michel, is that President Trump, when he launched this war, wanted to change the character of the Iranian regime away from death to America and death to Israel. And there is no evidence that this is a regime prepared to change its longtime character.
MARTIN: That is Karim Sadjadpour with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Sadjadpour, thanks so much for sharing your insights with us once again. We appreciate it.
SADJADPOUR: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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